Whereas the COVID-19 disaster reaffirmed the function of coated bonds as dependable funding instruments in occasions of economic turmoil in each established and new markets, we anticipate that the pandemic and the following coverage response could have long-lasting results on this instrument.
On this report, we take a more in-depth have a look at the important thing traits and outlook for brand spanking new coated bonds markets.
Ample Liquidity Will Depress 2021 Issuance
Regardless of prolonged coronavirus containment measures that pushed the world into the deepest recession for the reason that Nice Melancholy, the coated bond market remained open all through 2020 and banks had been capable of finding traders even on the peak of market turmoil. Low cost central financial institution funding partly changed investor-placed coated bonds, but additionally supported issuance of retained coated bonds (see “Coated Bonds 2021 Outlook: Coverage Intervention Is Reshaping The Function Of Coated Bonds,” revealed on Nov. 25, 2020).
Investor-placed benchmark issuance in 2020 was solely barely down in new markets in comparison with the 12 months earlier than, bolstered by the robust efficiency in Korea and Japan.
Ample liquidity will depress 2021 coated bond issuance in new markets, however volumes ought to choose up once more as soon as the financial restoration is nicely established.
Financial situations are enhancing, and financial progress ought to rebound globally in 2021. Nevertheless, we anticipate that the restoration will begin supporting mortgage lending solely from 2022. When mortgage lending grows quicker than buyer deposits, lenders sometimes entry the wholesale funding market, and may use mortgage loans as collateral for issuing coated bonds.
|GDP Development And Restoration Forecasts|
|Actual GDP progress charges||Restoration to finish 2019-level|
|Eurozone||1.3||(7.2)||4.8||3.9||2.2||Q2 2022||This fall 2023|
|China*||6.1||2.3||7.0||5.0||5.0||Q2 2020||This fall 2020|
|Russia||1.3||(3.5)||2.9||2.7||2.0||This fall 2021||Q2 2023|
|Brazil||1.1||(4.7)||3.2||2.6||2.6||Q3 2022||Q1 2023|
|U.Okay.||1.3||(11.0)||6.0||5.0||2.4||This fall 2022||>2023|
Financing situations also needs to stay supportive, backed by ultra-low rates of interest in main economies, which push traders to search for higher yields exterior extra established markets. The primary threat is that the passage of a extra sizeable stimulus within the U.S. is boosting inflation expectations and pushing U.S. yields increased. This in flip may lower capital flows to sure riskier markets (see “Rising Markets Month-to-month Highlights: Regardless of Vaccines, Normality Nonetheless Elusive,” revealed on Feb. 17, 2021).
Cautious Optimism For Issuance Decide-Up Beginning From 2022
Mortgage progress and additional authorized and regulatory developments also needs to assist coated bond issuance in new markets ranging from 2022. EU member states are within the strategy of transposing the harmonized coated bond framework into their nationwide legislations. The legislative package deal gives a typical definition of coated bonds, defines the product’s structural options, and clarifies the obligations for supervising the product. It additionally amends the EU Capital Necessities Regulation to strengthen the situations for granting preferential capital therapy (see “Harmonization Achieved: A New European Coated Bond Framework,” revealed on April 18, 2019).
A harmonized framework ought to increase improvement of coated bonds in Europe by elevating the requirements for asset high quality, disclosure, and supervision, significantly in some Central and Japanese European jurisdictions. On the identical time, the institution of a European benchmark may encourage legislators and regulators in different areas to align their frameworks to the identical requirements, additional supporting the developments of latest markets.
Central And Japanese Europe
Coated bond issuance is rising quickly in Central and Japanese Europe (CEE), particularly in Slovakia, the place new laws grew to become efficient in 2018, and in Poland, which noticed the primary inexperienced issuance within the area. In Estonia, the place new laws grew to become efficient in early 2019, Luminor Financial institution AS and LHV Pank AS entered the market in 2020 with benchmark and sub-benchmark issuances, respectively. As well as, in 2020 Luminor Financial institution added Latvian and Lithuanian mortgage and no credit check to its preliminary cowl pool of solely Estonian belongings. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are additionally establishing a pan-Baltic coated bond framework.
Demand for housing within the area has been robust, pushed amongst different elements by falling unemployment, quickly rising incomes, and a scarcity of dwellings. This resulted in a strong improve in mortgage lending, which issuers within the area have largely funded with deposits. In a couple of nations, banks had additionally relied on mum or dad assist from international banks to fulfill their funding wants. Nevertheless, following adjustments in banks’ possession and regulatory initiatives in recent times, banks have turn out to be self-financed. On this context, coated bonds have turn out to be an vital funding software for issuers to higher match their funding profiles, diversify their investor base, and optimize their value of borrowing.
Regardless of our expectation for an financial restoration by way of 2021, we imagine that coated bond issuance within the area will stay subdued this 12 months. A rise in mortgage loss provisions, and warning amid financial uncertainty ought to cut back the urge for food for granting new loans, whereas low-cost and steady retail deposits are nonetheless funding banks in CEE. As well as, we perceive that many CEE banks have obtained the minimal requirement for personal funds and eligible liabilities (MREL) targets in 2020 and have till the top of 2023 to attain them. Subsequently, we anticipate that they are going to choose issuing MREL-eligible debt slightly than coated bonds till they meet their MREL targets.
|Development Picks Up In 2021 However Deposits Cowl Most Funding Wants|
|Actual GDP progress (%)||Buyer deposits / home loans (%)||Nonperforming belongings / systemwide loans (12 months finish; %)||Mortgage progress (%)|
Within the medium time period, we imagine that coated bond progress will resume, lifted by a pick-up in mortgage origination and legislative and regulatory developments. Mortgage debt within the area continues to be under the European common, and we imagine that it may converge towards the extent of Western European nations.
The transposition of the EU harmonization directive also needs to show a supporting issue for coated bond issuance, by both introducing new devoted legislations or aligning present native frameworks to the most effective practices of extra established markets. With 4 months left for the transposition of the directive into nationwide frameworks, it’s not completely clear the place every nation stands within the course of. We perceive that in Hungary discussions between the Hungarian Banking Affiliation and the Ministry of Finance are progressing, however a draft regulation has not been submitted to Parliament but. The Latvian authorities launched to parliament a legislative framework for coated bonds in October 2020, whereas in Estonia and Lithuania work is in progress however no draft regulation is but in parliament. In Croatia the place reforms had been on maintain, the prevailing working group has been reactivated and is creating a coated bond authorized framework and the implementation of the directive is in progress. We at present don’t have any visibility on the scenario within the Czech Republic, Poland, and Slovakia.
Whereas we nonetheless assume that some member states will be capable of meet the July 2021 goal date, we see an rising threat that a minimum of a few of them might miss it.
The issuance of mortgage coated bonds in Hungary is ruled by Act No. XXX of 1997 on Mortgage Banks and Mortgage Bonds (Mortgage Financial institution Act; see “Hungarian Mortgage Coated Bond Framework Permits For Ranking Coated Bonds Greater Than The Issuer,” revealed on Aug. 24, 2018).
Despite the fact that Hungarian banks are principally deposit-funded, coated bonds have turn out to be an vital software to diversify funding sources and cut back the banks’ asset legal responsibility maturity mismatch. The Central Financial institution of Hungary (Magyar Nemzeti Financial institution; MNB) supported home issuance by establishing two mortgage bond buy packages and by introducing the mortgage funding adequacy ratio (MFAR) regulation, which requires that banks finance a minimum of 25% of excellent family mortgage loans with mortgage-backed bonds. As of year-end 2019, about 28% of Hungarian residential mortgage loans had been financed with coated bonds, up from up from about 16% at year-end 2016. In November 2020, the MNB stopped its coated bond purchases on the first market pending announcement of the main points of its inexperienced mortgage bond buy program, which needs to be established later this 12 months.
We anticipate modest coated bond issuances within the first half of 2021, whereas market members await the main points of MNB’s inexperienced mortgage bond purchases and the qualification standards for inexperienced bond standing. We don’t anticipate new market entrants, because the 5 main banks have already arrange their mortgage packages.
Amendments to the 1997 Act on Coated Bonds and Mortgage Banks, which grew to become efficient in January 2016, created enough situations for the event of the Polish market (see “A First Look At How Poland Would possibly Amend Its Coated Bond Framework,” revealed on Nov. 13, 2014). Since then, a supportive macroeconomic atmosphere and the need to diversify funding prices and cut back asset legal responsibility mismatch have fueled coated bond issuances. The most important banks have already arrange mortgage banks and more and more situation coated bonds, particularly euro-denominated notes.
In 2019, Polish issuers pioneered the primary inexperienced coated bond issuances in CEE. PKO Financial institution Hipoteczny S.A. issued its first Polish zloty (PLN) 250 million inexperienced coated bond that June, adopted shortly by a second issuance. ING Financial institution Hipoteczny S.A. adopted swimsuit with a PLN400 million inexperienced bond issuance.
Polish residential mortgage loans account for about 20.5% of GDP, a low proportion in comparison with different European nations, so there’s a robust potential for additional mortgage mortgage progress. On the identical time, solely about 5.6% of residential mortgages are funded with coated bonds, leaving loads of collateral for additional issuance.
On Jan. 4, 2019, an replace to the Bonds Act (No. 190/2004 Coll., on Bonds; as amended by Act No. 307/2018 Coll.) grew to become efficient (see “S&P World Scores Feedback On The Czech Republic’s Revised Coated Bond Framework,” revealed on March 5, 2019). Whereas Czech banks profit from a powerful core buyer deposit base, they’ve used coated bonds to diversify their funding sources. Consequently, the native coated bond market is the most important in CEE, with a complete excellent quantity of €14.2 billion as the top of 2019. Since Might 2020, the Czech Nationwide Financial institution accepts Czech koruna-denominated (CZK) mortgage bonds as collateral for short-term liquidity operations. Given banks’ robust liquidity buffers in home forex, we don’t anticipate this to have a fabric impact in driving CZK-denominated home coated bond issuances.
In recent times, many Czech banks have elevated euro-denominated lending to company entities. The Czech banking system is basically foreign-owned and due to this fact banks may get international forex funding from the mum or dad if wanted. Nevertheless, as banks have turn out to be self-financed, some wish to use coated bonds for euro funding and optimize their borrowing prices. The primary euro denominated benchmark transaction below the amended regulation was launched in January 2021 by Komercní banka, a.s., with a €500 million bond issued below its newly established €5 billion mortgage program.
We anticipate coated bond issuances to be flat in 2021 attributable to a slowdown in mortgage progress and banks taking a extra cautious stance amid financial uncertainty, earlier than choosing up in 2022.
The up to date coated bond laws adopted in January 2018 already displays the European Banking Authority’s greatest practices. With the amended legislative framework in place, Slovakian issuers have offered a wealthy provide of benchmark coated bonds and even dominated the CEE issuance market in 2019. In June 2020, Vseobecna uverova banka a.s. (VUB) issued its third €500 million benchmark coated bond, having launched two in 2019. Moreover, each Prima banka Slovensko, a.s. and Slovenská sporitl’na, a.s. made their benchmark debut issuances in 2019.
Slovakia’s banks posted strong credit score progress in recent times. Mortgage progress has been pushed primarily by mortgages funded by way of predominantly low-cost buyer deposits. Nevertheless, coated bonds have gotten more and more vital for banks to match their long-term mortgages with long-term funding.
Korea and Singapore pioneered coated bond issuance in developed Asia. As native banks are primarily funded by buyer deposits, their major motivation in establishing coated bond capabilities was to handle asset legal responsibility mismatch threat and diversify their funding sources. In 2018, the primary coated bond program was arrange in Japan. As a result of there isn’t any devoted native coated bond laws, this system was primarily based on a contractual construction.
Ample liquidity has not too long ago dampened issuance from Singapore, however total volumes have been partially compensated by issuance from Japanese and Korean banks.
Regardless of the anticipated rebound in financial exercise, we imagine that 2021 issuance within the area will probably be equally restrained by the provision of buyer deposits and restricted funding wants in foreign currency.
|Financial Situations Are Anticipated To Enhance In Main Asian Economies|
|Actual GDP progress (%)||Buyer deposits / home loans (%)||Nonperforming belongings / systemwide loans (year-end; %)||Mortgage progress (%)|
|Korea (the Republic of)||3.6||3.2||75.3||73.2||0.9||0.9||2.7||3.5|
Within the medium time period, we imagine that Asian coated bonds ought to develop additional, with new Asian banks benefiting from the funding diversification that they supply. We anticipate that housing finance wants will develop considerably, and coated bonds may turn out to be an vital instrument for mobilizing personal capital towards mortgage financing, particularly in rising Asia.
Regardless of the success of the Japanese issuers, we do not anticipate that many monetary establishments exterior Japan will set up packages primarily based completely on a contractual framework. Most new issuers will both await the approval of a devoted coated bond authorized framework, or a minimum of an applicable supportive regulatory framework, in our view.
The approval of the harmonization directive may spur legislative initiatives even exterior the EU, because it established a blueprint for coated bond authorized frameworks that will probably be thought-about by legislators globally. A stricter alignment with the provisions of the directive may additionally favor the achievement of an equal regulatory therapy of coated bonds issued by credit score establishments positioned exterior the European Financial Space.
Coated bonds in South Korea might be issued by way of the Coated Bond Act and the Korea Housing Finance Corp. Act. The Korean Housing Finance Corp. (KHFC) has issued coated bonds since 2010, joined by Kookmin Financial institution in 2015 (see “How We Charge Korean Coated Bonds,” revealed on Might 20, 2019). Since then, KHFC issued the primary social coated bond from Asia and the primary Korean euro-denominated coated bond in 2018, and KEB Hana Financial institution established its personal program and inaugural euro-denominated issuance in January 2021.
The Korean Monetary Companies Fee has additionally not too long ago adopted a number of measures to encourage coated bond issuance, together with lowered registration charges for bond issuances and decrease capital necessities for coated bond traders. These measures incentivized the issuance of South Korean received (KRW) denominated bonds, and since 2019 5 monetary establishments, together with KHFC, have issued coated bonds within the home market.
We anticipate Korean issuers to proceed utilizing coated bonds, each domestically and internationally, to diversify their funding base and mitigate asset-liability threat.
The regulatory framework for the issuance of coated bonds by banks included in Singapore was established on Dec. 31, 2013, and refined on June 4, 2015, by way of the Financial Authority of Singapore (MAS)’s Discover 648 (see “Singapore’s Coated Bond Framework Helps Greater Scores On Coated Bonds Than on The Issuer,” revealed on Feb. 23, 2016).
With the legislative framework in place, the three main home banks have already arrange their packages and cumulatively issued the equal of roughly €9 billion as of the top of 2020. Issuance might be additional stimulated by the MAS’ latest improve of the asset encumbrance restrict to 10% from 4% of the issuer’s complete belongings. This might result in a rise in present packages’ dimension and would possibly incentivize different banks to arrange coated bond packages. Nevertheless, the general provide will seemingly be restricted as a result of banks in Singapore are principally funded by depositors and have restricted funding wants in foreign currency.
Coated bond issuance is feasible in line with a devoted authorized framework–legislation-enabled coated bonds–or by way of contractual means–structured coated bonds (see “S&P World Scores’ Coated Bonds Primer,” revealed on June 20, 2019). Since there isn’t any devoted authorized framework in Japan, when Sumimoto Mitsui Banking Corp. (SMBC) issued the primary Japanese coated bond in November 2018 it primarily based its program on a contractual construction. Likewise, Sumitomo Mitsui Belief Financial institution (SMTB) launched its inaugural coated bonds in October 2020 with a construction just like SMBC’s. Given the provision of home deposit, it seems that the principle cause for establishing coated bond packages is to draw low-cost international forex funding.
The Japanese coated bond market has the potential to develop fairly significantly: native lenders are already utilizing collateralized lending, corresponding to residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), and so they have now began including coated bonds to their funding combine; excellent mortgage loans are about Japanese yen (¥) 200 trillion, of which solely 15%-20% is at present used as collateral for RMBS, leaving ample capability for coated bond issuance; Japanese banks have appreciable belongings denominated in foreign currency and coated bonds may represent a aggressive supply of funding for these belongings; and from a threat and regulatory perspective, coated bond issuance can cut back the period mismatch between the belongings and liabilities (see “How We Charge Japanese Coated Bonds,” revealed on Sept. 6, 2019).
Nevertheless, the present lack of a devoted authorized or regulatory framework might be a restraining issue for additional issuance, particularly for regional banks.
Issuers in China have expressed elevated curiosity in dual-recourse issuance previously few years. Since bigger banks in China profit from plentiful liquidity and robust deposit bases, the urge for food for coated bonds primarily displays rising threat awareness–specifically, the significance of getting different instruments for banks to plan for wet day funding, slightly than present funding wants. Except for restricted issuers’ provide, there are a number of different authorized and regulatory questions that needs to be thought-about. The incumbent asset situation is a major problem for coated bond issuance. China has laws on the safety of depositholders, and the association to ringfence particular banks’ belongings to profit coated bondholders might be sophisticated and not using a devoted authorized framework. Furthermore, legally, depositholders take pleasure in a really excessive rating within the allocation waterfall after banks’ liquidation within the area. As a result of these belongings’ ringfencing and deposit rating relate to the sovereign banking legal guidelines, regulators might discover it tough to have flexibility, even when they assist the event of coated bond issuance. Lastly, it’s unclear whether or not an on-shore special-purpose automobile may validly present a assure for funds. So, whereas banks in China are more likely to examine coated bond choices, it can in all probability take regulatory and deal-arranging efforts to see issuance within the close to future.
India has a big scarcity in reasonably priced housing and a younger and rising inhabitants. Furthermore, family debt as a proportion of GDP is under that of different rising markets. These elements recommend there might be important progress within the housing finance sector sooner or later. At the moment, buyer deposits predominantly fund banks in India, however issuers and regulators are contemplating different sources of wholesale funding, together with coated bonds. The Reserve Financial institution of India (RBI), for instance, had constituted in 2019 a Committee on the Improvement of Housing Finance Securitisation Market, which advisable, amongst different issues, an enhanced function for the Nationwide Housing Financial institution and additional amendments to scale back the transaction prices for securitizations. Like different Commonwealth nations corresponding to Australia and the U.Okay., India doesn’t have particular laws governing securitization. Somewhat, the authorized framework for India’s securitization market relies on present belief, contract, and property regulation, and a collection of pointers issued by the RBI. We anticipate that if coated bonds are issued in India, they might, a minimum of initially, be issued below a general-law framework with an applicable supportive regulatory framework. In our view, key clarifications required will embrace whether or not the issuance of coated bonds is permitted below Indian laws typically, whether or not present securitization pointers might be utilized to coated bonds, how asset segregation might be achieved, the therapy of belongings in an issuer insolvency situation, and whether or not there are any challenges from a tax perspective, together with stamp obligation and withholding tax (see “India’s Pathway To Establishing A Coated Bond Market,” revealed on Sept. 12, 2017).
Coated bonds on this area have a brief and restricted observe file. Panama was the primary nation to see a coated bond issuance in October 2012. Because it doesn’t have a devoted authorized framework, coated bonds had been primarily based on contractual agreements. Chile additionally noticed restricted and regionally distributed coated bond issuance previously.
One issue stopping monetary establishments within the area from issuing coated bonds is the shortage of a devoted authorized framework. Nevertheless, issues are altering due to the legislative developments in Brazil. If coated bonds show profitable there, we may even see different nations within the area comply with its lead.
In October 2014, Brazil enacted Provisional Measure No. 656, which outlined a framework for Brazilian native coated bonds (“letra imobiliária garantida”; LIGs), and which grew to become Legislation No. 13,097 in January 2015. From the standpoint of the authorized safety afforded to coated bondholders by the Brazilian framework in case of issuer insolvency, we imagine the brand new regime may permit a coated bond program to be rated above the issuer credit standing below our coated bonds standards (see “A Nearer Look At The Brazilian Coated Bond Framework,” revealed on Dec. 6, 2016).
Banks solely started issuing LIGs after the presidential election of 2018, with personal home placements. On the finish of 2020, the Brazilian Securities Change Fee allowed public placements for LIGs, which may additional assist home issuance. The market continues to be ready for authorized and regulatory clarification on how worldwide issuances might be accomplished. As soon as this clarification is obtained, we imagine that Brazilian banks will attempt to situation offshore LIGs focusing on international traders.
Morocco was the primary nation within the area to launch draft coated bond laws (see “Morocco Seems to be To Coated Bonds To Help Housing Finance,” revealed on Might 8, 2013). Nevertheless, it has not but authorized the ultimate regulation, which is a testomony to the difficulties encountered within the legislative course of.
Equally, in 2015, South African regulators thought-about permitting banks to situation coated bonds, within the context of a broader dialogue concerning decision regimes and the anticipated introduction of retail depositor ensures. Nevertheless, home traders stay immune to the thought of coated bonds, attributable to their issues in regards to the potential strain on the pricing of their senior unsecured debt, the losses if an issuer turns into bancrupt, and what may occur to the rankings on this debt. As of right this moment, banks are nonetheless not allowed to situation coated bonds, and we do not anticipate any market improvement in South Africa within the close to future.
S&P World Scores believes there stays excessive, albeit moderating, uncertainty in regards to the evolution of the coronavirus pandemic and its financial results. Vaccine manufacturing is ramping up and rollouts are gathering tempo world wide. Widespread immunization, which can assist pave the best way for a return to extra regular ranges of social and financial exercise, seems to be to be achievable by most developed economies by the top of the third quarter. Nevertheless, some rising markets might solely be capable of obtain widespread immunization by year-end or later. We use these assumptions about vaccine timing in assessing the financial and credit score implications related to the pandemic (see our analysis right here: www.spglobal.com/rankings). Because the scenario evolves, we’ll replace our assumptions and estimates accordingly.
- Rising Markets Month-to-month Highlights: Regardless of Vaccines, Normality Nonetheless Elusive, Feb. 17, 2021
- Asia-Pacific Monetary Establishments Monitor 1Q2021: The Climb Out Of COVID, Feb. 8, 2021
- Decrease And Later: The Shifting Horizon For Financial institution Credit score Losses, Feb. 2, 2021
- Asia-Pacific Sovereign Ranking Developments 2021, Jan. 28, 2021
- World Sovereign Ranking Developments 2021: Mounting Debt And Uncertainty Underpin A Destructive Outlook Bias, Jan. 27, 2021
- Banks In Rising Markets: 15 Nations, Three Essential Dangers (January 2021 Replace), Jan. 19, 2021
- China Structured Finance Outlook 2021: Count on One other Document Yr, Jan. 13, 2021
- Sustainable Coated Bonds: Assessing The Impression Of COVID-19, Dec. 1, 2020
- Coated Bonds 2021 Outlook: Coverage Intervention Is Reshaping The Function Of Coated Bonds, Nov. 25, 2020
- ESG Business Report Card: Coated Bonds, Nov. 9, 2020
- How COVID-19 Will Change Coated Bonds, July 8, 2020
- S&P World Scores’ Coated Bonds Primer, Sept. 6, 2019
- S&P World Scores’ Coated Bonds Primer, June 20, 2019
- How We Charge Korean Coated Bonds, Might 20, 2019
- Harmonization Achieved: A New European Coated Bond Framework, April 18, 2019
- New Coated Bond Markets Set To Increase Amid Legislative And Market Developments, March 21, 2019
- S&P World Scores Feedback On The Czech Republic’s Revised Coated Bond Framework, March 5, 2019
- How We Analyze Residential Mortgage Loans Backing Hungarian Coated Bonds, Feb. 20, 2019
- How We Charge Brazilian Coated Bonds, Oct. 16, 2018
- Hungarian Mortgage Coated Bond Framework Permits For Ranking Coated Bonds Greater Than The Issuer, Aug. 24, 2018
- Favorable Credit score Situations Underpin Coated Bonds Development In New Markets, March 23, 2018
- India’s Pathway To Establishing A Coated Bond Market, Sept. 12, 2017
- Credit score FAQ: How We Charge Coated Bonds In New Markets, Sept. 4, 2017
- A Nearer Look At The Brazilian Coated Bond Framework, Dec. 6, 2016
- Central Financial institution Coverage Drives Funding In Indian Securitization Transactions, July 18, 2016
- May Tighter Credit score Situations Open Up New Coated Bond Markets?, March 4, 2016
- Singapore’s Coated Bond Framework Helps Greater Scores On Coated Bonds Than On The Issuer, Feb. 23, 2016
- New Romanian Legislation Might Help Greater Scores For Coated Bonds Than On Issuers, Jan. 4, 2016
- Normal & Poor’s Feedback On Revised Turkish Coated Bond Framework, Might 20, 2015
- A First Look At How Poland Would possibly Amend Its Coated Bond Framework, Nov. 13, 2014
- Morocco Seems to be To Coated Bonds To Help Housing Finance, Might 8, 2013
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